578
FXUS66 KLOX 111738
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
938 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...11/937 AM.

Isolated to widely scattered showers will taper off today. Dry
conditions and a warming trend will begin Thursday and peak on
Friday with a weak Santa Ana wind event. Clouds and cooling
Saturday will lead to a chance of rain Sunday. Periods of rain and
low elevation snow are likely all next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...11/938 AM.

***UPDATE***

Mid-morning satellite loops indicate that the forecast area
remains along the poleward side of an extensive channel of
moisture streaming east-northeastward from well offshore Baja
California to the Central Rockies. The interaction of a
reinforcing upper cyclonic circulation approaching 30N130W from
the NW is facilitating the development of an inflection point in
the moisture channel -- a couple hundred miles southwest of the
Channel Islands. This is causing the back edge of midlevel
moisture to stall over the forecast area, despite the diffusion of
the initial upper low off presently located near the Central
California coast.

As a result, it appears that -- while large-scale ascent over the
local area is considerably weaker today than yesterday -- the
reinforcing circulation will continue spreading weak ascent
southward across the forecast area today. And with lingering
midlevel moisture, slight chances for showers have been added to
the forecast across most areas south of Pt. Conception. This
shallow convective activity will form and re-generate amidst
modest diurnal heating and in the vicinity of sea-breeze
boundaries and mountain-valley circulations, and then dissipate
quickly by the evening in response to nocturnal diabatic cooling.
Alternatively, the comparatively weaker upper-level ascent around
the initial upper low warrant lowering precipitation chances to
the slight-chance/chance category north of Pt. Conception. Any
additional rainfall amounts should be a tenth inch or less area-
wide.

While the back-edge of richer moisture aloft is stalling over the
area, most of this moisture is concentrated high in the
atmosphere as the midlevel dry slot from the initial upper low
previously overspread the region. Thus, a general clearing trend
will continue to be noted through the day today, with increasing
sunshine especially for locations west and north of Ventura.
Forecast sky conditions have been updated to account for this.

Also, VAD Wind Profile data suggest a 35-kt low-level jet
continuing to be maintained in conjunction with the developing
baroclinic-leaf structure in the moisture channel. This likely
reflects the low-level mass response to larger-scale deformation
superimposing on the synoptic baroclinic zone trailing south of
the initial upper low. The cessation of the interception of this
low-level jet with the high terrain of Los Angeles County has
therefore been delayed (owing to the maintenance of the low-level
mass response), and will continue to be delayed into the early
afternoon hours. Related surface observations across the San
Gabriels indicate wind gusts continue reaching around 45-50 mph
in isolated locations, and thus the Wind Advisory has been
extended until 1PM this afternoon.

Aside from the aforementioned parameters for the forecast for
today, the forecast is well on-track, and no other changes have
been made to the ongoing forecast.

***From Previous Discussion***

A fast moving but potent front has exited LA county about 6 hours
ahead of schedule. The speed of the passage was due to a strong
150kt jet that was aligned perpendicular to the front and really
gave it an extra oomph. There are plenty of showers following in
the wake of the front as a weaker vort lobe moves into the area.
These showers will continue through the morning and then taper off
as NVA moves in during the afternoon. Rainfall tracked well with
the forecast with most non interior areas seeing .5 to 1.00 inches
across the flatter portions and 1 to 2 inches across the coastal
foothills and mtn slopes. Additional rainfall amounts will almost
all be under a quarter inch except for the eastern San Gabriel
mtns and foothills where an extra third of an inch is possible.
Hgts will be near 562 dam today and with the rain and clouds max
temps will only reach the lower 60s.

The upper low does not actually move out of the area, rather is
morphs into pos tilt trof draped over the center of the state.
There is not too much moisture or dynamics assoc with it and the
day should be dry, but there is a non zero chc of a stray shower.
The day will likely start off mostly cloudy with mid and high
clouds but will turn mostly sunny in the afternoon. Max temps will
rise 3 to 6 degrees and will end up in the mid to upper 60s, which
is pretty close to seasonal norms.

A ridge will nose into the state from the north on Friday. It will
bring a little NE winds aloft to Srn CA while at the same time, sfc
high pressure in Great Basin will bring about 3mb of offshore flow
from the east and 6 mb from the north. This will set up a weak
Santa Ana across much of VTA and LA counties. Skies will be sunny
and max temps will respond by rising another 4 to 6 degrees with
the csts and vlys seeing max temps almost all in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Friday will be the nicest day of at least the next 7.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...11/257 AM.

Friday`s ridge will be pushed away by an approaching low on
Saturday. Clouds will advance into the state in the SW flow ahead
of the low. The offshore flow will end and gradients will be near
neutral. With the clouds and without the offshore flow max temps
will fall 4 to 6 degrees across the csts and vlys. Look for max
temps across the csts/vlys to end up mostly in the mid to upper
60s with a smattering of 70 degree readings.

Sunday will mark the beginning of a stretch of unsettled weather.
There will be a chc of morning rain across the Central Coast with
rain becoming more likely in the afternoon. South of Pt Conception
It will be dry in the morning and then a chc of rain will develop
in the afternoon. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be under a
quarter inch. Cloudy skies and rapidly falling hgts will lead to 2
to 4 degrees of cooling across the Central Coast and 4 to 8
degrees elsewhere. Highs will mostly be in the mid 60s across the
csts and vlys.

What was once going to be a series of separate storms now looks a
parade of entangled low pressure systems Sunday night through
Wednesday. It should be wet every day. Ensemble based predictions
show 2 to 4 inches across the coasts and 3 to 6 inches in the
mtns over the Sunday night to Wednesday time period. Snow levels
will be quite low 6000 ft at first but possibly falling to 4000 ft
or lower by Tuesday or Wednesday. There is a potential for
significant snow fall accumulations.

Stay tuned to this product by our NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard office
for the latest developments in this upcoming multi day storm.

&&

.AVIATION...11/1737Z.

At 1659Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer up to around
7000 feet.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. There is a 25%
chance of LIFR conditions developing at any site from 12/08Z to
12/16Z due to recent rains. Most likely at KPRB (30%).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of
1SM BR OVC004 conds 12/08Z-12/16Z. Good confidence that any east
wind component remains below 6 kts through the forecast period.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of
1SM BR OVC004 conds 12/08Z-12/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...11/811 AM.

The cold front has moved eastward and is now over land. Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions will linger at least into the
evening hours especially across the Outer Waters north of Pt
Conception. Spotty showers will also linger N of Pt Conception
through this timeframe.

There is a moderate chance for SCA conditions (winds and/or seas)
across the Outer waters Thursday afternoon through Saturday. At
times, these hazardous conditions could reach the nearshore waters
along the Central coast and western portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel.

Another storm system will enter the region Sunday or Monday,
bringing hazardous winds and seas along with rain to the entirety
of the coastal waters. There is a moderate chance for widespread
Gale Force winds early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...11/814 AM.

Southwest and west facing shores will be particularly vulnerable
to developing the southerly swell and surf through this evening,
especially the Santa Barbara South Coast, Ventura County Line, Leo
Carrillo, and Zuma Beach.

Swell and surf will likely drop below high surf advisory criteria
for Thursday, but high surf is likely to develop again from
Friday. It is likely that the swell and surf will remain at or
above high surf criteria through the upcoming weekend.

The latest swell models continue to highlight a period of very
large waves developing for early next week. There is a high to
likely (50-70 percent) chance of widespread high surf between
Sunday night and Wednesday as a combination of southwesterly and
west-northwesterly swells impact the coasts. Sets above 10 feet
will be possible across all coasts, but higher chances for west to
northwest facing coasts. There is a 20-40 percent chance of
damaging sets developing between Tuesday and Wednesday, highest
for northwest-facing shores along the Central Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for
      zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect until 1 PM PST this afternoon for
      zones 379-380-382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cohen/Rorke
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
BEACHES...Hall/BL/DB
SYNOPSIS...30/Cohen

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox