000
FXUS66 KLOX 222141
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
141 PM PST Sat Jan 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...22/120 PM.

Santa Ana winds will continue into Sunday, albeit weaker, and
mostly clear skies and above average daytime temperatures will
continue. A return to onshore flow and some cooling is expected
for coast and valleys early next week, then a warming trend
should develop for the latter half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...22/118 PM.

Winds are starting to decrease this afternoon as upper support
starts to wane and surface gradients start trending onshore. Still
seeing a few warning level wind reports in the LA mountains but
all other areas have dropped to advisory level winds or below.
Winds across the Ventura coastal plain have been underwhelming and
basically well below advisory levels for most of this event,
likely due to too much of a northerly component, however as the
support aloft takes more of an easterly component this should
allow stronger winds to reach that area and we`re starting to see
that already in the afternoon observations. With winds dropping in
most areas and picking up along the Ventura coast will go ahead
and replace high wind warnings with wind advisories and extend
most of the current slate of wind advisories until 2pm Sunday.
High res models still showing a little bump in winds after the
usual afternoon decrease but most areas should peak in the
advisory level with just a couple of the typical windier spots in
the western San Gabriels and Santa Susanna Mountains reaching 60
mph.

Temperatures are warming up nicely today downstream of the
mountains as compressional heating from the downslope winds pushes
temps into the 70s most lower elevation areas. Higher up though in
the mountains and in the Antelope Valley and interior SLO County
it`s quite a bit cooler due to the cold advection. Expecting
another warm day for the lowlands Sunday and warming temperatures
for the interior as the air mass rebounds from the departing upper
low.

Temperature trends will reverse Monday as light onshore flow
returns and heights aloft rise. The earlier sea breeze development
will cool temps for coast/valleys but the warmer air mass aloft
will bring warming temps to the interior. Tuesday will be a
transition day towards offshore flow again as a trough moves
through Utah and surface pressures rise over the interior. We`ll
see northeast winds developing across the interior during the
afternoon but below advisory levels. Overall, still some cooling
expected most coast and coastal valleys Tuesday and little change
for the interior.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...22/139 PM.

Offshore flow that will have begun Tuesday will continue into
Wednesday but ensembles in good agreement showing a much weaker
event than this last one as the trough is much farther east and
there is no cold air advection. As a result most areas will
likely stay below wind advisory levels. Just some isolated gusts
between 30-45 mph in the favored areas, mainly in the LA mountains
and probably just 25-35 for the stronger valley locations.

High pressure aloft will start to build in Wednesday and really
take hold Thursday. That combined with the offshore gradients
should lead to quite a bit of warming for most areas.

Quite a bit of disagreement in the models for later next week into
next weekend as the GFS and most its ensembles maintain the ridge
through next weekend while the ECMWF is quicker to flatten the
ridge with some troughing developing over the Pac NW by Friday.
These differences continue into the following week with the EC
definitely more supportive of increasing precipitation chances by
early February. This is reflected well by examining the qpf output
from the various ensembles with the GEFS definitely trending drier
in the longer range from earlier solutions while most ECMWF
ensemble members continue to show some rain coming in.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1830Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in VFR conditions at all sites.

Moderate confidence in wind for LA and Ventura County sites. NE
winds will weaken through the afternoon, but timing may be off by
a couple hours and wind speeds may be off by 5-10 kt. There will
be areas of LLWS, some moderate to strong turbulence, and moderate
to strong UDDF.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions and moderate confidence
in wind. There is a 30% chance of a 15 kt northerly cross wind
through 00Z. There is a 30% chance of an east wind component
exceeding 8 kt 03Z-15Z.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions and moderate confidence
in wind. There is a 30% chance of N to NE gusts to 25 kt through
00Z.

&&

.MARINE...22/128 PM.

NE winds appear to be slowly diminishing but still remain gusty
across the waters from Ventura to Santa Monica out to Anacapa
Island. Winds have dropped below Gale Force so have replaced the
Gale Warning with a Small Craft Advisory. Winds will slowly
subside through the day, but good confidence that there will still
be gusty winds close to shore through the afternoon and early
evening. Will keep the SCA in effect through 9pm with a chance
that winds may subside below SCA level earlier. NE winds will pick
up again late tonight through Sunday morning but will be much
weaker than today. There is a 30% chance of another round of SCA
level winds for the same waters from Ventura to Santa Monica for
that time period. Will let the next shift re-evaluate to determine
if the SCA may need to be extended through Sunday morning. For the
waters from the Channel Islands to San Nicolas Island, have let
the SCA expire as winds have largely diminished below SCA level.
There still may be lingering gusty winds over the far eastern
portion around Santa Barbara Island through the afternoon.

There will be a chance for SCA level NW winds across the outer waters
along the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island on Monday then
winds will settle down for the rest of the week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Sunday for zones
      40-41-44>46-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for
      zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (TUE-SAT).

No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Stewart
MARINE...Stewart
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox




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