598
FXUS66 KLOX 241924
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1224 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...24/1200 AM.

Hotter than normal conditions will continue for the foreseeable
future, generally hottest through Sunday. The hot daytime and
warm night conditions will bring elevated risks for heat illness.
Gusty north winds will affect some areas through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...24/1220 PM.

The persistent ridge of high pressure aloft will drive the
overall weather through the forecast period. The center of the
upper level high is parked over the Four Corners, leaving
Southwest California on the western periphery of the highest 500
mb heights. Widespread Heat Advisories and an Extreme Heat Warning
remain in effect through Monday night for almost the entire
forecast area. The Central Coast remains the only location outside
of any Heat Headlines, however, there is a 30% chance Heat
Advisoires will be needed for the interior Central Coast Sunday
and Monday. Temperatures have been a little cooler than forecast
in this area the last few days, so we will have to see how things
play out today and tomorrow. Onshore flow will continue to bring
some afternoon relief at the immediate coastal areas, but not much
beyond this.

Expecting some marine layer cloud coverage to return to the
Central Coast each night and morning, with chances increasing
across the LA Coasts over the weekend. Very low confidence in how
the marine layer will behave over the Ventura County and southern
Santa Barbara Coast tonight, but with increasing NW winds over the
Santa Ynez Saturday and Sunday, expecting little if any marine
layer cloud coverage from Southern Santa Barbara County to the
entura/LA County border. The extent of the marine layer cloud
coverage may make or break high temperature forecasts for coastal
and inland coastal areas, especially along the Central Coast. As
referenced earlier, the Central Coast has been a little cooler
than expected the last few days, mostly due to fairly expansive
marine layer cloud coverage in the morning slowing down the warm
up.

There remains a very low chance for afternoon showers or
thunderstorms over the weekend, around 5-10% chance with best
chances appearing to be on Sunday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...24/1220 PM.

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the next
week, adding to this lengthy warm spell. As mentioned before, the
large area of high pressure will remain the dominant weather
feature through next week. The core of the high will shift a
little to the east Monday through Wednesday and bring a touch of
relief to the heat, but only by a few degrees. Coastal areas will
see the most noticeable drop as onshore pressure gradients
strengthen some and low clouds and fog will likely be more
expansive than it has been.

The majority of the ensemble solutions, especially with the EC,
show this relief being short-lived as the high pressure builds
back towards the west after Wednesday. Some projections show the
core of the upper level high moving directly over California by
Saturday, with 500 mb heights increasing to close to 600
decameters, which is about as strong as it gets. Becasue of this
synoptic setup, some ensemble projections (and the mean) favor
slightly warmer temperatures by the end of next week compared to
this current stretch of warmer than normal temperatures. While
onshore flow is still projected to be fairly persistent, some
ensemble members do show weakening onshore flow late next week
into the weekend. If this comes to fruition, coastal areas may
see the largest increase in temperatures next weekend compared to
this weekend.

The one saving grace is that the majority of projections also show
a sharp drying trend at the same time, with precipitable water
readings dropping from 1.5 inches today to under 1.0 inches by
Wednesday. This will certainly help with the muggy feeling
weather. The more limited moisture and

&&

.AVIATION...24/1924Z.

At 1748Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 4400 ft with a temperature of 29 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions through tonight at KBUR KVNY
KPMD KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in reaminder of TAFs. Chances
for LIFR/IFR conditions today and tonight at KPRB (10%) KSBP
(30%) KSMX (70%) KSBA (10%) KOXR (20%) KCMA (10%) KSMO (30%) KLAX
(40%) KLGB (60%).
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF after 09Z. There is a 40%
chance of BKN005-008 10-16Z Saturday. High confidence in any east
winds staying under 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/827 AM.

High confidence in persistently strong NW winds from the Central
Coast to San Nicolas Island through at least Tuesday Night. Gusts
of 30-40 knots will be common each afternoon and night, bordering
between strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) and low-end Gale
Warnings. These winds will also affect the western Santa Barbara
Channel each night, and may cover enough of the channel to need a
SCA. With these winds, widespread choppy or steep seas is likely.
In addition, patches of dense fog are possible anywhere through
Sunday or Monday, especially off the Central Coast.

&&

.BEACHES...24/1224 PM.

A long period, southern hemisphere swell will arrive early
Saturday and will add to the continuing swell from Hurricane
Fausto. This swell will result in an increased risk of dangerous
rip currents across the coastal beaches, as well as elevated surf
of 3-6 ft across the Los Angeles and Ventura County Beaches.
Therefore, Beach Hazard Statements are in effect through the
weekend for Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches and the Central
Coast beaches. Rip currents and elevated surf will be strongest
across south to southwest facing beaches and harbors such as Avila
Beach.

The Eastern Pacific looks to remain active with tropical systems
over the next couple of weeks. This could result in additional
southerly swells to impact the coastline.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 38-88-342>345-348>358-362-366>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for
      zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zone
      383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis/RK/Lewis
AVIATION...KL
MARINE...RK/KL
BEACHES...Lund/Black
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox