FXUS66 KLOX 231017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
317 AM PDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...22/640 PM.

It will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool today with a few
mountain showers. A trof will bring cooler temperatures and a
slight chance of mountain showers to area this weekend. Offshore
flow will bring some morning canyon winds and warming trend to the
area next week.


.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...23/312 AM.

The last vestiges of the storm have exited to the east and all
that remain are a few stray showers. By sunrise the only showers
left will be over the mtns and even these will be gone by early
afternoon. The cooler air behind yesterdays front has lowered the
snow levels down to 6000 feet. The showers however are not strong
enough to bring any snow of significance. All of the moisture has
allowed plenty of low clouds to develop and most areas will wake
up to mostly cloudy skies. Do not expect total clearing this
afternoon either as the low level moisture will cook up into an
extensive CU field in the afternoon. Thkns today will be about 553
DM which will lead to max temps 5 to 8 degrees below normal.

The low level moisture will again form a fairly extensive low
clouds deck across the coasts and some of the vlys.

A fairly dry trof moves across the state Saturday and Saturday
night. Its not very impressive but will bring a slight chc of
light showers to SLO and SBA counties as well as the mtns of VTA
and LA counties. Snow levels will be much lower than with the
previous system and the grapevine may even see some flurries. It
will bring clouds and cooler air and max temps will fall 2 to 4
degrees across the area.

Not much excitement for Sunday. Skies will be partly cloudy and it
will likely be the coolest day of the next 7 with max temps 8 to
12 degrees blo normal despite increased sunshine.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...23/312 AM.

The trof will move east of the state and will begin to elongate on
Monday. Benign weather will rule with mostly clear skies and
offshore flow. Just enough offshore flow to create some sub
advisory canyon winds. Max temps will warm from the chilly weekend
values but will still remain blo normal.

Monday night and Tuesday the trof will spawn a cutoff low near the
CA/AZ/NV triple point. At the same time a ridge will nose into pac
NW. This upper level pattern will bring NE upper level flow across
southern CA and this will combine with moderate offshore flow
coming from a sfc high over NV to produce advisory level winds
through and below the NE passes and canyons of VTA and LA
counties. Max temps will warm but not that much since the initial
Santa Ana will bring in a grip of cool air from the desert.

Better offshore flow at the sfc Wednesday will balance the weaker
upper support due to the upper low moving to the east and there
will be another round of advisory level Santa Ana winds in the
morning. There will be nice warm up and most areas will jump 4 to
8 degrees and reach highs several degrees above normal.

A ridge will cover the state on Thursday. The offshore flow with
switch to weakly onshore so despite the higher hgts the coasts
will cool a few degrees but the interior will warm a few more
degrees. Still max temps across the area will be above normal.



At 0545Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor a sfc based

Low confidence all TAFs through 20Z then good confidence. Cigs and
Vis will vary frequently during the rain. After the rain stops
random cig layers will likely form and dissipate. LIFR conds are
possible at all sites through 16Z.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF through 20Z. Cigs and Vis will vary
frequently. There is a 30 percent chc that east winds will end by
08Z. There is a 30 percent chc that MVFR cigs will hold off until

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 20Z. Cigs and Vis will vary
frequently. There is a 30 percent chc of LIFR conds through 18Z.


.MARINE...22/810 PM.

Generally good confidence in the current forecast. For the outer
waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will affect the entire
area tonight and Fri, and until 05Z Fri evening for PZZ670, thru
10Z late Fri night for PZZ673, and thru at least 22Z Sat
afternoon for PZZ676. Winds should come up again Sat night and
Sun, with 50%-60% chance of SCA winds Sun thru Tue.

For the inner waters N of Point Conception, there is a 20% chance
of SCA winds this evening western portion, and a 30%-40% chance
of SCA winds Sat evening and Sun evening, otherwise winds and seas
should remain below SCA thru Sun night. A 40% chance of SCA wind
gusts can be expected Mon as well.

Across the inner waters S of Point Conception, winds and seas will
remain below SCA thru Fri, then there is a 50% chance of SCA
winds Fri night thru Sun and again Sun nigh thru Mon.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible at times across the southern
waters through this evening. Brief gusty and erratic winds will
be possible near any thunderstorm.


PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for
      zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).



No significant hazards expected.





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