SPC Tornado Watch 90

WW 90 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO 082125Z - 090500Z
      
WW 0090 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 90
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
425 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Arkansas
  Southern Illinois
  Southwest Indiana
  Western Kentucky
  Southeast Missouri

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 425 PM until Midnight
  CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will rapidly develop this afternoon across
southeast Missouri and build eastward across the watch area this
evening.  Supercells and bowing segments capable of very large hail
and damaging wind gusts are expected.  A few tornadoes are possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of West
Plains MO to 15 miles south southeast of Owensboro KY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...WW 89...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28035.

...Hart

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89

WW 89 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO 082005Z - 090200Z
      
WW 0089 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Iowa
  Western and Central Illinois
  Eastern Missouri

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM
  until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Storms will quickly increase and intensify near/ahead of a
southeast-accelerating cold front. The environment is favorable for
initial supercells capable of large hail. Damaging winds will also
become an increasing concern by early evening as storms tend to
merge and organize into a fast-moving line particularly across
central/southeast Illinois.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of
Bloomington IL to 45 miles south southwest of Saint Louis MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29040.

...Guyer

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88

WW 88 SEVERE TSTM AL MS 081940Z - 090200Z
      
WW 0088 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 88
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  South-central Alabama
  Eastern Mississippi

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM
  until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...At least isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorms will
continue to develop and intensify within a corridor from
south-central/eastern Mississippi into south-central Alabama. This
includes the potential for some supercells and organized clusters
capable of large hail and locally damaging winds as storms move
east-southeastward through early evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest
of Meridian MS to 20 miles southeast of Auburn AL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.

...Guyer

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87

WW 87 SEVERE TSTM KY OH VA WV 081710Z - 090000Z
      
WW 0087 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 87
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
110 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Kentucky
  Far southern Ohio
  Western Virginia
  Southern West Virginia

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM
  until 800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will
continue to develop and move east-southeastward across the region
this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support some supercells and other organized clusters
capable of severe hail and locally damaging winds.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north
northwest of Lexington KY to 25 miles northeast of Dublin VA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
28025.

...Guyer

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SPC Tornado Watch 90 Status Reports

WW 0090 Status Updates
      
WW 0090 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0090 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89 Status Reports

WW 0089 Status Updates
      
WW 0089 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 89

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW COU
TO 40 WSW UIN TO 5 N UIN TO 40 SE BRL TO 35 ESE BRL TO 10 N MLI.

..JEWELL..04/08/20

ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC001-005-009-011-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-039-
041-045-049-051-053-057-061-063-073-075-079-083-095-099-101-105-
107-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-129-133-135-137-139-143-147-149-
155-159-163-167-169-171-173-175-179-183-189-203-082240-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BOND                BROWN               
BUREAU               CALHOUN             CASS                
CHAMPAIGN            CHRISTIAN           CLARK               
CLAY                 CLINTON             COLES               
CRAWFORD             CUMBERLAND          DE WITT             
DOUGLAS              EDGAR               EFFINGHAM           
FAYETTE              FORD                FULTON              
GREENE               GRUNDY              HENRY               
IROQUOIS             JASPER              JERSEY              
KNOX                 LA SALLE            LAWRENCE            
LIVINGSTON           LOGAN               MCLEAN              
MACON                MACOUPIN            MADISON             
MARION               MARSHALL            MASON               
MENARD               MONROE              MONTGOMERY          
MORGAN               MOULTRIE            PEORIA              
PIATT                PIKE                PUTNAM              
RICHLAND             ST. CLAIR           SANGAMON            
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88 Status Reports

WW 0088 Status Updates
      
WW 0088 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 88

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW CBM TO
45 SW TCL TO 30 S TCL TO 40 S BHM TO 35 SSW ANB TO 20 NNE LGC.

..COOK..04/08/20

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC001-005-011-013-017-021-023-025-035-037-041-047-051-081-085-
087-091-099-101-105-109-113-123-131-082240-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUTAUGA              BARBOUR             BULLOCK             
BUTLER               CHAMBERS            CHILTON             
CHOCTAW              CLARKE              CONECUH             
COOSA                CRENSHAW            DALLAS              
ELMORE               LEE                 LOWNDES             
MACON                MARENGO             MONROE              
MONTGOMERY           PERRY               PIKE                
RUSSELL              TALLAPOOSA          WILCOX              


MSC023-061-069-075-099-101-123-129-082240-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARKE               JASPER              KEMPER              
LAUDERDALE           NESHOBA             NEWTON              
SCOTT                SMITH               

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87 Status Reports

WW 0087 Status Updates
      
WW 0087 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 87

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW TRI
TO 45 ESE JKL TO 15 W BLF TO 10 ENE PSK TO 20 WSW LYH.

..COOK..04/08/20

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...RLX...ILN...RNK...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 87 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KYC081-195-082240-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

GRANT                PIKE                


NCC005-009-033-157-169-171-189-193-197-082240-

NC 
.    NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGHANY            ASHE                CASWELL             
ROCKINGHAM           STOKES              SURRY               
WATAUGA              WILKES              YADKIN              


VAC021-027-035-051-063-067-077-083-089-121-141-143-155-173-185-
197-590-640-690-750-082240-

VA 
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLAND                BUCHANAN            CARROLL             
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SPC MD 315

MD 0315 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
MD 0315 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

Areas affected...much of central and northern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 082206Z - 082330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms should hold together and pose a limited wind/hail
risk in areas downstream of WW 87.  A WW issuance is being
considered for this activity.

DISCUSSION...Storms across upstream areas (in WW 87) have evolved
into loosely organized, outflow-dominant clusters while migrating
south-southeastward toward the discussion area.  The downstream
airmass supporting these storms has strong deep shear (45-50 kts
0-6km) supporting continued organization, though a few factors
appear to work against a continued downstream threat beyond the
two-hour timeframe, including: 1) weakening mid-level lapse rates
with southeastward extent, 2) expected cooling of the nocturnal
boundary layer, and 3) continued weak low-level flow which should
keep ongoing convection mostly outflow-dominant.   Nevertheless,
ongoing organization and steep low-level lapse rates should support
a wind/hail risk with the strongest convection at least through
sunset.  It is uncertain if a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
needed for downstream areas given expected negating factors.

..Cook/Hart.. 04/08/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36128044 36018046 35828044 35618028 35347986 35177870
            35487745 35927696 36457706 36677767 36687865 36607955
            36398021 36128044 

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SPC MD 314

MD 0314 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MO...SOUTHERN IL...FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWEST IN
MD 0314 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

Areas affected...portions of southeastern MO...southern IL...far
western KY and far southwest IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 082045Z - 082245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat is increasing across
southeast MO, southern IL into adjacent portions of far western
KY/southwest IN. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
main concern with this activity, though a couple of tornadoes cannot
be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A CU field over southeast MO continues to deepen late
this afternoon. Strong heating has allowed temperatures to warm into
the low and mid 80s F. South/southwesterly low level flow will
continue to increase moisture across the MS/OH Valley region into
this evening, with several areas already recording dewpoints in the
mid 60s across far southeast MO into far western KY. This has
resulted in moderate to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE values
as high as 2500 J/kg apparent in 20z mesoanalysis. Forcing across
the region is currently weak, and TCU development mainly driven by
diurnal processes in the presence of moderate instability. However,
stronger height falls and increasing upper level support will
impinge on the area in the next few hours, and thunderstorm
development is likely by 22z. 

Initially, semi-discrete cells are expected with stronger vertical
shear and very steep lapse rates (8-9 C/km) favoring supercells
capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, and
as frontal forcing increases through the evening, upscale growth is
expected with time as convection shifts east into southern IL and
adjacent portions of far western KY/southwest IN, increasing
potential for damaging winds. While low level moisture is expected
to increase through the evening, boundary layer mixing will
initially result in higher-based convection, limiting tornado
potential. Nevertheless, a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out
where richer low level moisture exists.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/08/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   38438784 37808789 36908863 36508951 36459022 36469111
            36789153 37619182 37999176 38189147 38289012 38528854
            38588801 38438784 

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SPC Apr 8, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds, some significant, are expected from
mid/late afternoon across the middle Mississippi Valley eastward
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through late tonight.

...20Z Update...

...Mid MS/TN/OH Valleys...
Only minor changes to the outlook over this area, including trimming
up the northwestern extent based on the position of the cold front
and also slightly extending 15% wind/5% tornado probabilities across
southern IN.

19Z surface analysis placed a low near the southern IA/IL border,
with a cold front extending southeastward through northeast KS.
Strong heating has contributed to deep boundary-layer mixing ahead
of the front across much of northern MO and northern/central IL
(sampled well by the 18Z ILX sounding). Dewpoints are currently in
the upper 40s/low 50s across this region. 

Strong forcing for ascent both along the front and ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough are still expected to increasing
thunderstorm coverage over the next few hours. An initially cellular
mode will quickly transition to a more linear mode with one or more
bowing segments then progresses southeastward. Strong wind gusts
remain the primary severe threat with large to very large hail also
anticipated. A brief embedded/QLCS tornado or two is also possible
once the bowing line segment(s) mature and reach the better
low-level moisture farther southeast over southern IL, southern IN,
southwest MO, and western TN/KY. 

...South-Central TX...
Severe thunderstorms are still expected across the area this
afternoon and evening. Near-term severe threat was recently address
via MCD #311.

...Southeast...
Ongoing thunderstorms across central MS and AL are expected to
persist for at least the next several hours with an attendant threat
for large hail and damaging wind gusts. This severe thunderstorm
threat was recently addressed by the issuance of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 88.

..Mosier.. 04/08/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020/

...Overview...
An active severe-weather day is expected across a relatively broad
region encompassing the Middle Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio
Valley, Tennessee Valley to the south-central Appalachians. Aided by
a notably amplifying trough over the Upper Midwest, generally
strengthening west-northwesterly flow aloft in conjunction with an
observed eastward-advecting plume of steep mid-level lapse rates,
particularly across Iowa/Missouri and likely into southern portions
of Illinois/Indiana and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee, will support a
broad corridor of large hail/damaging wind potential this afternoon
and tonight. 

...MS/OH/TN Valleys this afternoon through tonight...
The region will be decidedly influenced by the southeastward-digging
upper trough/jet streak over the Upper Midwest that will spread
toward the Lake Michigan vicinity by evening, with an overlap of
considerably strengthening winds aloft with a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates atop relatively rich early-April
boundary-layer moisture. A cold front will accelerate/steadily
progress southeastward across the middle Mississippi Valley and
Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valley through tonight. Ahead of this front,
relatively rich low-level moisture with boundary-layer dewpoints in
the upper 60s to lower 70s will continue to spread northeastward
from the northwest Gulf coast to the Lower Ohio Valley today.

In particular, strong/severe thunderstorm development is anticipated
by early-mid afternoon initially across east-central/southeast Iowa
as height falls with the northern stream trough (and a lead speed
max) begin to interact with the more marginal moisture on the
northwest edge of the unstable warm sector. The initial storms will
likely evolve into supercells capable of producing very large hail
into Illinois. Convection will subsequently spread
east-southeastward through the evening along the instability
gradient across central/southern portions of Illinois/Indiana, and
likely grow upscale into a larger cluster with increasing damaging
wind potential.  

Farther south, additional storm development is also likely along and
ahead of the cold front, starting late this afternoon in the
vicinity of southeast Missouri. Large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg
or larger) is likely from southeast Missouri eastward as
boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F spread northeastward beneath 8-9
C/km mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer vertical shear will initially
be a little weaker in this corridor between the amplifying northern
stream and a southern stream from Texas to the Southeast, but the
large buoyancy/steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer
flow/shear by this evening will favor a mix of supercells and
growing clusters capable of producing very large hail and damaging
winds. 

Like the initial convection farther north in Illinois/Indiana,
upscale growth into an extensive QLCS appears likely this evening
across the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley regions, with an
increasing threat for fairly widespread damaging winds. A couple of
tornadoes may also occur with the initial discrete cells or with
embedded circulations in the later QLCS as low-level shear increases
this evening/overnight and moderate-strong buoyancy is maintained
through the late-night hours.

...Southern WV to the VA/NC border this afternoon/evening...
Outflow continues to surge southward late this morning while
weakening across North Carolina. Gradual air mass recovery will
occur near/south of a differential heating zone near the
Virginia/North Carolina border vicinity. Storms are likely to
initially develop/intensify across southern West Virginia and in
vicinity of the Appalachians spine. Ample heating, some moisture
recovery, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt in the presence of
straight hodographs will favor splitting cells capable of producing
damaging gusts and isolated large hail as storms spread
east-southeastward.

...Central MS/AL into southern GA this afternoon/evening...
Initially elevated storms continue to develop/slowly increase across
far southern Arkansas late this morning, a probable precursor for
additional clusters of thunderstorms that are expected to develop
and move east-southeastward this afternoon across north-central
portions of Mississippi/Alabama into southern Georgia. This
development will be along the eastern edge of the richer moisture
(dewpoints near 70 F) and within the right-entrance region of the
mid/upper jet, in conjunction with thinning clouds/daytime heating
and a weakening of convective inhibition. While mid-level lapse
rates are not overly steep, MLCAPE between 1500-2500 J/kg and long
straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will favor
splitting supercells capable of producing large hail and locally
damaging thunderstorm gusts.

...Central/south-central Texas this afternoon/evening...
Modest convergence in vicinity of an eastward-mixing dryline should
focus at least isolated thunderstorm development generally around
the I-35 corridor this afternoon as convective inhibition weakens
and buoyancy becomes very large. Upwards of 3500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE is
expected by mid/late afternoon in the presence of lower 70s F
surface dewpoints. Despite weak low-level flow/shear, effective bulk
shear around 50 kt and ample moisture/MLCAPE will support supercells
capable of producing isolated very large hail and locally damaging
winds this afternoon/evening.

Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Strong winds and dry air will be present across Nebraska and
portions of northern Kansas tomorrow. Boundary-layer mixing should
be more muted than it has been today. With temperatures most likely
struggling to make it out of the 50s F, fire weather concerns should
be similarly decreased. Within portions of the Piedmont region,
precipitation this afternoon and tonight remains a concern and
highlights will be withheld until those details are more clear.
Previous discussion contains further details.

..Wendt.. 04/08/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020/

...Synopsis...
The mid-level low meandering across the southwest CONUS on Day 1
will linger across the area through the Day 2/Thursday period.
Modest surface troughing across the southwest CONUS may encourage
dry and breezy conditions for portions of New Mexico.  Meanwhile, a
mid-level trough will continue to deepen as it progresses along the
East Coast, with 100+ knot 500 mb flow and 40+ knot 850 mb flow
overlapping a relatively dry post-frontal airmass. Despite the
potential for accumulating rainfall across portions of the East
Coast, areas that receive minimal precipitation may experience
conditions that are at least modestly supportive of fire spread
given the strong wind fields aloft overspreading a mixing boundary
layer.

...East Coast region...
By afternoon, the boundary layer may mix up to 850 mb, promoting the
stronger winds to transport downward to the surface, where sustained
westerly winds may exceed 15 mph in several locales. Given the
recent passage of a cold front, dry low-level air will be in place,
with 25-35% RH expected from the Mid Atlantic to the Georgia/Florida
border. While such conditions typically necessitate at least an
elevated delineation, the potential for appreciable accumulating
precipitation across much of the region lowers confidence as to
which areas should be highlighted. Current model consensus suggests
that the Carolinas are most likely to see a precipitation minimum
through Day 2, and a favorable wind/RH overlap for an elevated
delineation. Still, more consistency in guidance is desired before
any delineations are introduced.

...New Mexico...
By afternoon peak heating, a well-mixed boundary layer will likely
encourage RH dropping to 15-20% across much of central New Mexico.
The aforementioned surface troughing, and channeling of flow through
terrain favoring areas, may support brief periods of localized
elevated conditions across central and northern portions of the
state. The localized and brief nature of the conditions precludes an
elevated area at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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