SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 6 21:58:01 UTC 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct  6 21:58:01 UTC 2022.


SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Oct 6 21:58:01 UTC 2022

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct  6 21:58:01 UTC 2022.


SPC Oct 6, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Thu Oct 06 2022

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely through tonight across the continental
United States.

...20z Update...

The 10 percent general thunderstorm areas across parts of the
central Plains and the Great Lakes have been modified to remove
areas where thunderstorm chances appear low given the current
location of the surface cold front and latest CAMs guidance.
Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track, and severe
thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

..Leitman.. 10/06/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Oct 06 2022/

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow will exist from the northern/central
Plains eastward to the mid-Atlantic/northeast U.S. through tonight. 
Areas of larger-scale ascent associated with embedded shortwave
troughs, and a southeast-moving cold front, will affect portions of
the central/northern Plains, Great Lakes and New England. Buoyancy
will be minimal in these areas, though sufficient for a few
thunderstorms.

A weak upper low over AZ/NM will drift southwest today.
Surfaced-based instability on the order of a few hundred J/kg this
afternoon will support scattered thunderstorms. 

An inverted surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will move
towards the south Texas coast today. Surface dew points in the upper
60s will contribute to sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorm
development.

Severe weather is not anticipated across the continental U.S.
through tonight.

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes were made, fire weather concerns should remain localized
and short duration.

..Lyons.. 10/06/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 06 2022/

...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure will settle over much of the CONUS east of the
Rockies amid deep-layer northwesterly upper-level flow
tomorrow/Friday. Widespread wildfire-spread threats should remain
limited across the CONUS.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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