SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33

WW 33 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 242205Z - 250500Z
      
WW 0033 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 33
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern and western Arkansas
  Southeastern Oklahoma
  North central and northeastern Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development appears to be underway
along a surface boundary from north Texas into eastern Oklahoma and
northwestern Arkansas.  The storms are expected to increase in
coverage/intensity through late evening, with the primary threat
being large hail with supercells.  Some damaging wind threat could
evolve tonight as storms cluster from northeastern Texas into
southwestern Arkansas.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast
of Flippin AR to 50 miles east southeast of Dallas TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.

...Thompson

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33 Status Reports

WW 0033 Status Updates
      
WW 0033 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 33

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE GYI TO
25 NW PRX TO 30 ENE PRX TO 10 WNW DEQ TO 25 N DEQ TO 35 SE RKR TO
25 NE LIT.

..JEWELL..03/25/19

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...OUN...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 33 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC019-051-057-059-061-073-081-091-097-099-109-113-119-125-133-
250540-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARK                GARLAND             HEMPSTEAD           
HOT SPRING           HOWARD              LAFAYETTE           
LITTLE RIVER         MILLER              MONTGOMERY          
NEVADA               PIKE                POLK                
PULASKI              SALINE              SEVIER              


OKC089-250540-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

MCCURTAIN            


TXC037-063-067-085-113-119-121-147-159-181-183-223-231-257-277-
343-379-387-397-423-439-449-459-467-499-250540-

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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Mar 25 08:16:02 UTC 2019

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 25 08:16:02 UTC 2019.


SPC Mar 25, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
AL AND GA...

CORRECTED FOR HAIL PROBABILITIES

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of Alabama
into western Georgia Monday afternoon into early evening. Hail is
the primary risk.

...Gulf States...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts two distinct short-wave
troughs upstream of the Gulf States. One feature is digging
southeast along the IL/MO border while the lower-latitude short wave
is approaching the Arklatex. Deep convection is noted ahead of these
features at 0530z from northeast TX into western KY. Latest model
guidance suggests this activity will propagate southeast and weaken
by sunrise along a corridor from middle TN into central LA.
Boundary-layer moisture has been slow to recover across the central
Gulf States and this early-day convection is expected to remain weak
before spreading into northern GA. Redevelopment is expected along a
pronounced front later in the afternoon. If sufficient low-level
heating can materialize in the wake of this weak convection/debris,
isolated surface-based thunderstorms should materialize within a
veered boundary-layer flow regime ahead of the wind shift.
Convective temperatures are expected to be breached as temperatures
warm into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Forecast soundings suggest
deep-layer shear will support supercell development and large hail
is the primary risk with convection that evolves within favorably
forced region of upper trough. This activity is expected to spread
into portions of GA during the late afternoon.

South of the mid-level jet, along the trailing cold front,
negligible large-scale forcing/weak low-level convergence will be
noted along the wind shift into the upper TX Coast region. It's not
entirely clear how much convection will evolve along the front
across southern LA west to the upper TX Coast, but boundary-layer
heating and favorable buoyancy should be adequate for a few storms.
Forecast soundings suggest supercell structures are possible and
hail is the primary concern.

..Darrow/Nauslar.. 03/25/2019

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SPC Mar 25, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Probability of severe thunderstorms is currently less than 5% across
all areas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
At the beginning of the period, a cold front is expected to extend
from a surface low just off the SC coast southwestward through the
FL Panhandle across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into deep south
TX. Passage of this cold front on Monday will have scoured out the
low-level moisture across the Southeast and much of the southern
Plains. Eastern portion front is expected to continue southeastward
through FL while the western portion stalls over south TX and
diffuses. 

Warm temperatures aloft and weak forcing for ascent will likely
preclude thunderstorm development across FL and south TX during the
day. Some isolated thunderstorms appear possible across northern FL
and adjacent portions of southern GA as a compact shortwave trough
moves through during the evening and overnight. Limited low-level
moisture and cool temperatures are currently expected to temper
instability, keeping thunderstorm coverage less than 10%.

Moisture return is expected across the southern High Plains, with
dewpoints reaching the low 50s by Tuesday evening. This modest
moisture return will likely be enough to promote weak instability
within the deeply mixed air mass across the region. Convergence
along the lee trough as well as favorable orographic effects will
result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development.
Given the steep lapse rates and vertically veering wind profiles,
some severe threat is possible, although severe potential is
currently too low to delineate any areas. 

A lightning strike or two is also possible across the interior
valley of CA during the afternoon and evening and along the northern
CA coast overnight. However, thunderstorm coverage is currently
expected to be less than 10%.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Mosier.. 03/25/2019

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SPC Mar 25, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest
and northern California Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains
Wednesday evening and overnight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Overall upper pattern is not expected to undergo any significant
changes on Wednesday. A compact shortwave trough extending from just
off the Carolina coast through the central FL Peninsula at the
beginning of the period will continue eastward farther offshore.
Farther west, strong southwesterly flow will persist from CA across
the Great Basin as upper low off the northern CA/Pacific Northwest
coast remains largely in place. Several low-amplitude shortwave
troughs will move within this southwesterly flow, providing the
impetus for thunderstorm development within the steep-lapse-rate
environment in place from central CA through western OR. Modest
instability is expected to limit overall updraft strength and
persistence. Even so, the strong vertical shear may compensate for
the weak instability and a few more-organized storms may develop.
These storms may be able to produce small hail. Limited coverage and
anticipated sub-severe hail size preclude delineated any outlook
areas. 

Lee troughing will continue to deepen across the central and
southern High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis across eastern CO.
Large-scale ascent will be weak but convergence along the lee trough
and near the surface low may provide enough lift for isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Primary forecast
uncertainty is the extent of air mass destabilization. Modest
moisture advection will be ongoing, but mixing will likely keep
dewpoints in the low 50s. Steep lapse rates over the region would
promote hail within any persistent updrafts. Isolated thunderstorms
are also possible later in the evening and overnight as warm-air
advection strengthens. Uncertainty remains too high to delineate any
areas with this outlook but areas may be needed in subsequent
outlooks, if confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases.

..Mosier.. 03/25/2019

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge will build over the Intermountain West and into
Alberta/Saskatchewan today with upper-level troughs over the Pacific
Coast and eastern CONUS. A surface cold front will push
south-southeast through much of Texas and the Southeast with
thunderstorms/showers forming along/ahead of the front and
cooler/drier conditions behind it. Weaker mid-level flow over the
Southwest/southern High Plains will weaken lee troughing and relax
the surface pressure gradient leading to lighter surface winds (< 10
mph). Insolation and deep boundary-layer mixing across the
Southwest/southern High Plains will lead to low surface RH (8-20%)
and warm temperatures except across portions of eastern New
Mexico/West Texas where the cold front passes through.

..Nauslar.. 03/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will prevail across much of the central CONUS as
troughing continues over the West/East Coasts on Tuesday. An
upper-level shortwave trough will track along the periphery of the
ridge over the northern Rockies with enhanced mid-level flow of
45-65 knots overspreading much of the Great Basin. 

Southerly surface winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 8-20% will
develop across portions of the southern Great Basin/northern
Arizona, but fuels are not critical across this region. Lee
troughing extending southward from central Montana into
Wyoming/Colorado will result in warm/dry/breezy conditions across
portions of southeast Wyoming/eastern Colorado. Elevated conditions
(south-southwest winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) may
develop Tuesday afternoon with southeast Colorado favored. However,
uncertainty regarding fuel dryness, especially after recent
rainfall, precludes from introducing an elevated area at this time.

..Nauslar.. 03/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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