SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 24 20:16:01 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 24 20:16:01 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 1723

MD 1723 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

Mesoscale Discussion 1723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241949Z - 242145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across far eastern New Mexico and
into the Texas Panhandle is expected within the next 1-2 hours.
Storms will be capable of producing strong to severe downburst
winds, but this threat will remain fairly isolated and negate the
need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows cumulus development
along a weak trough axis draped from eastern NM into the
northeastern TX Panhandle. Modifying a recent 18 UTC AMA sounding
using recent surface observations (which feature temperatures
quickly warming into the upper 90s and low 100s with 55-60 F
dewpoints) suggests that MLCIN has largely been eroded by the warm
temperatures and MLCAPE has likely increased to 2000-2500 J/kg. The
rate of cumulus growth across eastern NM and into the TX Panhandle
corroborates this analysis and suggests that deep convective
initiation will likely occur within the next 1-2 hours. 

Observed dewpoint depressions on the order of 40-45 F and the 18 UTC
sounding suggest boundary-layer depth will likely be on the order of
2-3 km across the region, which will promote downdraft accelerations
and the potential for strong to severe downburst winds - possibly as
strong as 55-65 mph based on environmental conditions and output
from recent high-res guidance (which appears to be capturing
thermodynamic trends well). However, poor deep-layer wind shear will
promote transient and poorly organized convection. This will also
help focus the primary severe wind threat to mainly along and near
the surface trough where low-level convergence will be maximized.
Given these concerns, watch issuance is not expected.

..Moore/Smith.. 07/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34630377 36260190 36620129 36680079 36690028 36539997
            36269987 35959989 35610000 33710256 33560301 33550340
            33670369 34020382 34370388 34630377 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

SPC MD 1722

MD 1722 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

Mesoscale Discussion 1722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241936Z - 242100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A watch will likely be needed by later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to develop along a differential heating
zone/outflow boundary across northern Minnesota and southern
Manitoba. Ongoing activity remains elevated, but CINH has started to
erode across northeast North Dakota where temperatures are in the
mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. The southern
periphery of a mid-level jet streak has overspread northern North
Dakota with 45 to 50 knots being sampled around 6km by the MBX VAD.
Ascent associated with this mid-level jet streak is approaching the
region (as evidenced by mid-level ACCAS across north-central North
Dakota. As this ascent overspreads the uncapped airmass farther east
within the next 1 to 2 hours, expect surface-based storm
development. 

Scattered storm development, including supercells, are expected
through the afternoon and into the evening with a threat for all
severe weather hazards. Most notably, very large hail is possible
given supercell storm mode, strong instability, strong shear, steep
lapse rates, and strong venting flow aloft. The greatest tornado
threat will likely be across far northeast North Dakota into
northern Minnesota where 70s F dewpoints are present, particularly
in vicinity of the differential heating boundary.

..Bentley/Smith.. 07/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47810152 48400053 49029936 49129851 49149583 48959481
            48629364 47909376 47149581 46849708 47209923 47410102
            47810152 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

SPC MD 1721

MD 1721 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA AND NORTHWEST UTAH

Mesoscale Discussion 1721
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Idaho and portions of far northeast
Nevada and northwest Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241902Z - 242100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms capable of producing strong to
severe downburst winds will spread across southeast Idaho through
early evening. This threat will remain sufficiently limited to
preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lightning data show steady
vertical growth of cumulus and the early stages of convective
initiation across far northeast NV, northwest UT, and south-central
ID. Continued development is expected through mid-afternoon as
daytime heating and orographic ascent strengthens and any lingering
inhibition is eroded. Immediately downstream from this activity,
temperatures are warming into the mid 90s and low 100s with
dewpoints mixing into the upper 40s and low 50s. Although RAP
mesoanalyses suggests MLCAPE has only increased to around 500 J/kg,
modifying a recent 18 UTC LKN based on downstream observations
suggests MLCAPE has actually increased to around 1000 J/kg.
Consequently, a few robust thunderstorms will likely emerge in the
coming hours. 

The potential for strong/severe downburst winds should increase as
this activity spreads into the hotter, more deeply mixed environment
air mass within the Snake River Plain - largely driven by the
propensity for downdraft accelerations through a ~3 km deep boundary
layer. This scenario is reflected in recent HRRR/RRFS solutions,
which depict the potential for downbursts winds on the order of
55-70 mph. Despite this potential, modest deep-layer wind shear
(sampled by the 18 UTC LKN sounding) suggests that storm modes will
most likely remain poorly organized and transient, which limits
confidence on the overall coverage/duration of the severe threat and
the need for watch issuance.

..Moore/Smith.. 07/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   41731501 42011522 42221534 42641526 42911499 44281208
            44311167 44211138 44011124 43611113 43191115 42921135
            42521186 41561452 41731501 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

SPC Jul 24, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado risk are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

...Dakotas/northern Minnesota...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a thin stratus
shield across central into northern MN ahead of a cluster of
thunderstorms over southern Manitoba.  This thunderstorm activity is
associated with a weak mid-level vorticity max embedded within an
amplifying northwest-flow pattern over the Upper Midwest.  A surface
trough extends southwestward into ND from a cyclone moving east
along the south shore of Hudson Bay.  

A plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a
warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface trough, with
MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of North Dakota into
northern Minnesota by late afternoon.  Forecast model soundings show
elongated hodographs thereby promoting storm organization, including
supercells and eventually a small cluster or two.  Morning models
continue to indicate widely scattered (ND) to scattered storm
development (MN) later this afternoon into the evening.  Large to
very large hail is possible with the supercells (1 to 3 inches in
diameter).  Some tornado risk will likely focus across northern MN
where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and enlarged hodographs
become co-located for a few hours.  Any organized clustering could
result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential. 
Some severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger
portion of northern/central Minnesota through late evening, with a
general weakening trend expected overnight due to increasing CINH
and weakening buoyancy. 

Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell
development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies
during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of
northern/central North Dakota within a northwesterly flow regime. 

...Eastern ID into northeast NV...
A weak disturbance evident in water-vapor imagery will continue to
move northeast over northern UT into southeast ID this afternoon
along the periphery of the Four Corners upper ridge.  Widely
scattered high-based storms will likely develop by late afternoon. 
Forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles supporting ample
evaporative cooling with the stronger downdrafts.  Isolated severe
gusts 60-70 mph are possible.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...
On the western periphery of residual early day precipitation/cloud
cover, a nearly stationary front draped from eastern New Mexico into
the Texas Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm
development by late afternoon and early evening. While deep-layer
winds will be weak, strong boundary-layer heating/mixing will
support potential for localized downbursts. 

...Southeast AZ...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late
this afternoon and slowly propagate westward.  A couple of the
stronger high-based downdrafts may yield a risk for severe gusts for
a few hours before this activity dissipates by late evening. 

...Coastal Carolinas...
Near/south of a residual front, relatively strong heating of a
moisture-rich airmass will result in the development of moderate
buoyancy across the Carolina coastal plain.  Scattered storm
development is expected by early/mid afternoon.  A couple of
stronger water-loaded downdrafts may be capable of a localized
wind-damage risk.

..Smith/Moore.. 07/24/2026


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SPC Jul 24, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado risk are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

...20z Update Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Scattered thunderstorms ongoing along a differential heating axis
near the international border should continue to increase in
coverage and intensity this afternoon. Aided by increasing synoptic
ascent and deep-layer shear from the approaching upstream
low-amplitude trough and jet, supercells and organized clusters are
likely. Severe hail is expected, with some 2-3+ inches in diameter
possible with the more robust supercells that evolve initially.
Damaging wind gusts are also likely across eastern ND into northern
MN as storms begin to grow upscale. A few significant gusts are
possible given the large buoyancy and plume of steeper low-level
lapse rates apparent to the southwest across ND. 

A couple of tornadoes are possible closer to the effective boundary,
where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and stronger low-level
shear are expected. A CIG-1 wind area was included where the latest
HRRR/RRFS time-lagged runs show greater clustering which could
promote a sustained damaging wind or hail threat into this evening.
See MCD#1622 for short-term information.

...Carolinas...
Scattered thunderstorms along a weak surface cold front and
sea-breeze boundary across the coast and coastal plain will continue
to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon. 5% wind
probabilities were trimmed slightly to the west where storm
coverage/clustering are expected to be lower.

Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains valid with no changes.
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of TX, AZ and ID.
See the previous discussion and active mesoscale discussions for
more information.

..Lyons.. 07/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026/

...Dakotas/northern Minnesota...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a thin stratus
shield across central into northern MN ahead of a cluster of
thunderstorms over southern Manitoba.  This thunderstorm activity is
associated with a weak mid-level vorticity max embedded within an
amplifying northwest-flow pattern over the Upper Midwest.  A surface
trough extends southwestward into ND from a cyclone moving east
along the south shore of Hudson Bay.  

A plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a
warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface trough, with
MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of North Dakota into
northern Minnesota by late afternoon.  Forecast model soundings show
elongated hodographs thereby promoting storm organization, including
supercells and eventually a small cluster or two.  Morning models
continue to indicate widely scattered (ND) to scattered storm
development (MN) later this afternoon into the evening.  Large to
very large hail is possible with the supercells (1 to 3 inches in
diameter).  Some tornado risk will likely focus across northern MN
where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and enlarged hodographs
become co-located for a few hours.  Any organized clustering could
result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential. 
Some severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger
portion of northern/central Minnesota through late evening, with a
general weakening trend expected overnight due to increasing CINH
and weakening buoyancy. 

Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell
development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies
during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of
northern/central North Dakota within a northwesterly flow regime. 

...Eastern ID into northeast NV...
A weak disturbance evident in water-vapor imagery will continue to
move northeast over northern UT into southeast ID this afternoon
along the periphery of the Four Corners upper ridge.  Widely
scattered high-based storms will likely develop by late afternoon. 
Forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles supporting ample
evaporative cooling with the stronger downdrafts.  Isolated severe
gusts 60-70 mph are possible.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...
On the western periphery of residual early day precipitation/cloud
cover, a nearly stationary front draped from eastern New Mexico into
the Texas Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm
development by late afternoon and early evening. While deep-layer
winds will be weak, strong boundary-layer heating/mixing will
support potential for localized downbursts. 

...Southeast AZ...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late
this afternoon and slowly propagate westward.  A couple of the
stronger high-based downdrafts may yield a risk for severe gusts for
a few hours before this activity dissipates by late evening. 

...Coastal Carolinas...
Near/south of a residual front, relatively strong heating of a
moisture-rich airmass will result in the development of moderate
buoyancy across the Carolina coastal plain.  Scattered storm
development is expected by early/mid afternoon.  A couple of
stronger water-loaded downdrafts may be capable of a localized
wind-damage risk.


Read more

SPC Jul 24, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM THE 
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies
into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will move around the northern
periphery of the high amplitude ridge across the central US
D2/Saturday. Southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions
of the northern Rockies, with more northwesterly flow shifting
across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region.  At the
surface, a weak front will extend from a surface low over the
northern and central Plains to the Southeast coastal areas. 

...Northern Rockies...
Deeply mixed boundary layer conditions are expected across the
Northern Rockies amid dry sub-cloud inverted-v soundings and steep
low to mid level lapse rates. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm
development is expected across the high terrain. Moderate
instability is progged along with strong deep layer shear, which may
support isolated stronger cells with potential for strong to severe
wind gusts.

...South Dakota and the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes...
Strong daytime heating is expected across the northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Daytime temperatures are
progged to possibly exceed 100 F south of the weak front from the
Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. With the building high amplitude
ridge, warming around the 850-700 mb level will result in capping
across much of the more strongly unstable air mass. It does appear
that portions of northern/central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin
and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan may see enough weakening of the
cap to allow for isolated thunderstorm development by the afternoon.
Forecast soundings suggest veering wind profiles favorable for
supercells. Strong deep layer shear and linearly elongated profiles
will support large to very large hail and damaging wind. Though
low-level shear is more marginal, low tornado potential will exist.

Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop near the Black Hills
in South Dakota. Very hot and moderately unstable conditions are
expected amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Isolated
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind will be possible,
with potential for some clustering downstream and increase in
damaging wind potential into the evening. 

...Southeast Arizona...
The favorable position of the surface high across the Four Corners
will bring moist easterly flow across southeastern Arizona. Some
enhancement of the easterly flow will allow for modest shear
profiles. It is likely that storms will develop across the high
terrain and move into the low deserts through the afternoon/evening.
Deeply mixed profiles and modest shear for organization will support
potential for strong to severe winds.

..Thornton.. 07/24/2026


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SPC Jul 24, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds
are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into
portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
Enhanced mid-level flow will round the central US ridge D3/Sunday,
overspreading portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Along
with the increasing flow, several shortwave disturbances will shift
across the region. At the surface, a low will develop across the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest with a surface front moving through
the northern Plains/Midwest by the evening.

...Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes...
Beneath strong upper-level ridging and a very moist air mass with
dew points in the 60s to mid 70s, an EML plume will advect eastward
across the High Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. This
will result in a very volatile and strongly unstable but largely
capped air mass. While forcing for ascent will increase, lack of
discernible surface features and strength of the capping inversion
leads to low confidence in the exact evolution of thunderstorm
development. Hi-res guidance does suggest that a few isolated
supercells may develop. A conditional threat for large to very large
hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado will exist with any
storms that can become rooted within the boundary layer, given the
presence of 35-50 kt deep-layer shear and the favorable unstable air
mass. 

As the front shifts south and east through the afternoon/evening and
forcing for ascent increases, storms may develop as far west as the
eastern Dakotas/Nebraska. It seems probable that a thunderstorm
complex could develop across some portion of the upper Mississippi
Valley, though confidence in the exact corridor remains low. This
will pose a conditional threat for a more focused corridor of
damaging wind potential.

..Thornton.. 07/24/2026


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OREGON...NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST
IDAHO...

The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded slightly in southern
Oregon, northeast California, northwest Nevada, and southwest Idaho
based on the latest observations and forecast guidance. While RH
recovery was mostly moderate to good across the Elevated area, RH is
already dropping and will continue throughout day leading to long
duration elevated/critical conditions as stronger winds develop by
the afternoon. Elevated and perhaps locally critical conditions will
continue overnight across southeast Oregon, northwest Nevada,
southwest Idaho, and far northeast California.

..Nauslar.. 07/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
As an upper-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast
today, a series of disturbances cresting the upper-level ridge over
the West will result in increased flow aloft from the Pacific
Northwest into the northern Plains. Given the hot and dry airmass in
place over much of the region, deep boundary-layer mixing will
promote gusty surface winds raising fire-weather concerns in an
increasingly favorable fuelscape.

...Northeastern California...Northwestern
Nevada...South-Central/Southeastern Oregon...
Very hot and dry conditions will result in multiple hours of
single-digit RH values across the region.  With enhanced
southwesterly flow aloft brushing the area, deep vertical mixing
will result in west-southwesterly surface winds approaching 20 mph. 
Given the dry fuels (ERC values exceeding the 80th percentile) and
recent lightning events with limited rainfall, critical fire weather
conditions are likely.

...Northern Montana...
Very strong winds aloft and a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will
result in sustained afternoon westerly surface winds approaching 20
mph in the presence of RH values dipping just below 15%.  These
elevated conditions will cure the fuels for the coming days.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE INLAND NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHWEST GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST MONTANA...

Minor modifications were made to the outlook based on the latest
forecast guidance. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms
may develop into western South Dakota and northeast Wyoming.
However, efforts were made to exclude areas that have recently
received wetting rain, will likely receive wetting rain, or will
have multiple consecutive days of wetter thunderstorms. Regardless,
lightning ignitions remain possible if not likely in/around the
IsoDryT area, with gusty outflow winds likely as well. Additionally,
locally extremely critical conditions remain possible in wind prone
areas and where deep boundary layer mixing allows for stronger winds
and drier air aloft to surface across the Critical area.

..Nauslar.. 07/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
Continued upper-level ridging over the West on Saturday with
enhanced flow over the ridge will result in an expansive area of
fire-weather concerns, extending from northern California/Nevada
into eastern Oregon/Washington and northern Idaho/Montana.

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions...
Successive days with hot, dry, and breezy conditions warrant
critical fire-weather highlights in a favorable fuelscape,
characterized by ERC values largely ranging from the 80th-95th
percentiles across the region.  Deep, well-mixed boundary layers are
likely to yield critical RH values (<15%) and sustained afternoon
wind speeds exceeding 20 mph.  The most favorable meteorological
conditions are likely across southeastern Oregon.

...Dry Thunderstorm Potential...
While PW values around one inch may favor wetting rains from
thunderstorms across central/eastern Montana, very hot and deep
boundary layers will promote precipitation evaporation.  When
considering relative fast storm motions (25-30 mph), a mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms is possible across the region.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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