SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 16 06:24:02 UTC 2019

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 16 06:24:02 UTC 2019.


SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Jan 16 06:24:02 UTC 2019

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 16 06:24:02 UTC 2019.


SPC Jan 16, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are likely late Wednesday across parts of
northern and central California. Gusty winds may accompany this
activity.

...CA...

00z short-range model guidance is in general agreement that a strong
short-wave trough will approach the northern CA coast by 17/06z with
substantial height falls expected to spread inland during the
overnight hours. Large-scale forcing for ascent will likely
encourage weak elevated convection ahead of the front during the
early evening but this activity should struggle to attain heights
necessary for lightning. However, significant mid-level cooling will
aid destabilization as lapse rates steepen just ahead of a
pronounced surface front that should move onshore around 06z.
Forecast soundings along the northern CA coast suggest near-surface
based buoyancy will evolve along the front which will likely result
in one or more strongly-forced bands of convection. Very strong
southwesterly flow is forecast just off the surface and there is
some concern strong winds may mix to the surface with the frontal
convection. NAM forecast sounding at SFO at 17/06z exhibits SBCAPE
on the order of 300 J/kg with 50kt southwesterly flow at 1k feet
AGL. At this time will not introduce MRGL for gusty winds but if
sufficient instability can materialize a few strong storms may be
possible with the frontal convection.

..Darrow/Leitman.. 01/16/2019

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SPC Jan 16, 2019 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible across parts of California into the
Great Basin on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will dig southeastward toward the Great Basin
with substantial cooling aloft and lift resulting in widespread
precipitation. Minimal instability will exist across CA during the
day and developing into the Great Basin, due to steepening lapse
rates aloft. Sporadic lightning strikes will be possible from CA
into NV and UT as a cold front progresses eastward. A few strong
wind gusts may occur as a result of downward mixing of strong winds
aloft, but severe weather is unlikely.

Elsewhere, a fast moving shortwave trough will move east from the
Mid MS Valley early in the day to the Mid Atlantic coast by late
evening. Cold air aloft may support minimum elevated instability
across KY and TN, but the overall thunderstorm threat is quite low.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Jewell.. 01/16/2019

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SPC Jan 16, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Wed Jan 16 2019

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms are possible Friday evening and overnight
across parts of Texas. Hail will be the primary threat.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will develop southeastward across the Four
Corners states and into the Southern Plains with 50-65 kt midlevel
southwesterly winds and cooling aloft overspreading much of Texas.
At the surface, low pressure will translate southeastward across
Texas as a cold front surges southward across the High Plains. To
the east of the cold front, southerly winds will aid in the
northward transport of low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in
destabilization and scattered thunderstorms.

To the west, cold air aloft early in the day may support isolated
lightning strikes across parts of Arizona and New Mexico, but storm
activity will not be severe.

...Central/Northern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma...
Moisture advection will occur across the warm sector in Texas
through the period, with initial rain showers and a few weak
elevated thunderstorms possibly as early as late afternoon. More
substantial lift will occur during the evening as warm advection
increases, and overnight along the cold front. Forecast soundings
indicate little surface based CAPE due to a cool boundary layer
initially, but cool temperatures aloft as well as lengthening
hodographs will favor hail. The most concentrated area of storms
producing hail is forecast to be over north Texas and perhaps across
the Red River into Oklahoma and/or ArkLaTex. While surface based
instability will increase into Saturday morning, chances of wind
damage appear low at this time.

..Jewell.. 01/16/2019

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