SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 22 19:45:02 UTC 2022

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 22 19:45:02 UTC 2022.


SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Jan 22 19:45:02 UTC 2022

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 22 19:45:02 UTC 2022.


SPC Jan 22, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes may occur late today into tonight across
parts of Arizona.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front will continue to move southeastward across/off
the southeast FL coast and Keys during the day, with the primary
threat for thunderstorms focused along the wind shift across the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL coast.  Farther west, a closed
midlevel low will continue to drift southeastward over southwest
AZ/Sonora through Sunday morning.  Relatively cool midlevel
temperatures and sufficiently steep midlevel lapse rates, along with
a gradual increase in low-midlevel moisture, could result in just
enough buoyancy for isolated lightning flashes by late today into
tonight within the arc of what is now shallow/midlevel convection
from the Rim into south central AZ.

..Thompson.. 01/22/2022

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SPC Jan 22, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes may occur late today into tonight across
parts of Arizona.

No changes were made to the previous outlook.

..Jewell.. 01/22/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022/

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front will continue to move southeastward across/off
the southeast FL coast and Keys during the day, with the primary
threat for thunderstorms focused along the wind shift across the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL coast.  Farther west, a closed
midlevel low will continue to drift southeastward over southwest
AZ/Sonora through Sunday morning.  Relatively cool midlevel
temperatures and sufficiently steep midlevel lapse rates, along with
a gradual increase in low-midlevel moisture, could result in just
enough buoyancy for isolated lightning flashes by late today into
tonight within the arc of what is now shallow/midlevel convection
from the Rim into south central AZ.

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SPC Jan 22, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible across southeast Arizona
and southwest New Mexico on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a dry air mass will cover most of the CONUS with a high
over the Pacific Northwest and a surface ridge from the upper MS
Valley into TX. This will maintain dry offshore flow across the Gulf
of Mexico and western Atlantic. 

During the day, a deep upper low will move east across far southern
AZ and NM, reaching the southern High Plains by 12Z Monday. Although
absolute moisture levels will be low, very cold air aloft combined
with daytime heating may yield sufficient instability to support
isolated convection, mainly over the higher terrain over southeast
AZ, the eastern Mogollon Rim and into western NM. While elevated
moisture around 700 mb may develop farther east across NM and west
TX overnight, thunderstorm chances appear low.

..Jewell.. 01/22/2022

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Morning observations and latest guidance continue to suggest low
fire weather potential for today. Recent observations from the
coastal southern CA mountains show wind gusts between 50-65 mph,
which will likely continue through the afternoon before gradually
abating tonight. While RH in the teens and 20s is supporting
elevated to critical wind/RH combinations, latest fuel information
continues to show ERC values below seasonal average.

..Moore.. 01/22/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022/

...Synopsis...
For today, a broad upper-level trough will exist across the upper
Midwest into the Mid-South. Farther west, a closed upper low will
slowly progress eastward within the lower Colorado River Valley
region. At the surface, high pressure will be situated across much
of the west into the Plains. Colder surface temperatures and light
winds will keep fire weather concerns minimal for most areas.
Offshore winds will continue across southern California into the
afternoon. Fuels are not receptive to fire spread due to recent
precipitation, however.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No forecast changes are necessary. Latest guidance continues to show
high confidence in strong winds gusting to 30-45 mph tomorrow
afternoon across central MT in the lee of the Rocky Mountain Front.
Cool temperatures will generally limit RH reductions and fuels in
most locations are not receptive per collaboration with local NWS
offices. However, given ongoing drought conditions and a lack of an
appreciable snow pack, the low-end, wind-driven fire weather concern
is worth mentioning.

..Moore.. 01/22/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022/

...Synopsis...
For Sunday, the closed upper low over the Southwest will evolve into
an open wave before reaching the southern High Plains. A shortwave
trough will quickly move southeastward out of Canada and into the
northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will remain in the
West with a surface low developing in the upper Midwest. Overall,
fire weather concerns will be minimal due to cool/cold conditions
and unreceptive fuels. Offshore winds will continue in southern
California, though fuels will continue to be unsupportive of fire
spread.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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