SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 21 10:55:03 UTC 2018

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 21 10:55:03 UTC 2018.


SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Oct 21 10:55:03 UTC 2018

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 21 10:55:03 UTC 2018.


SPC Oct 21, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
High pressure will remain centered over the Midwest on Wed/D4, and
will shift east across the Great Lakes on Thu/D5. During this
period, the more substantial low-level moisture will remain over the
Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. By Fri/D6, an upper trough is
forecast to amplify over Gulf of Mexico as an upper jet dives
southeastward across the Southern Plains. This will induce low
pressure to form over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early
Fri/D6, which will draw 70s F dewpoints eastward over the FL
Peninsula. Mean winds through a deep layer as well as shear will
increase ahead of a cold front with scattered storms affecting FL on
Fri/D6. Instability will not be strong, but some severe wind threat
is possible. At this time, predictability is too low to introduce
severe probabilities especially given low-end potential. However, a
Slight Risk could be added to parts of FL in later outlooks as
confidence increases. 

From Sat/D7 and beyond, a strong cold front will scour much of the
region of moisture with strong northwest flow over the Plains.

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