000
FXUS66 KSGX 221014
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
314 AM PDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the mountains for this
afternoon. Strong high pressure aloft will move into Southern
California through mid week bringing a period of very hot weather
except near the coast and at the highest elevations of the
mountains. The heat is expected to peak on Tuesday and Wednesday
with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average. For areas
near the coast...a shallow marine layer and a weak coastal eddy
will keep areas near the coast not as hot with patchy night and
morning low clouds and fog. For late in the week into next
weekend...the high pressure will weaken slightly and begin to
shift northward. This will bring a slow cooling trend into next
weekend with a return of monsoonal moisture for next weekend into
the following week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

There were a couple of brief isolated thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon...one on the north slopes of the San Bernardino
Mountains and a second in the mountains on the border between
Riverside and San Diego Counties. Based on the location of
afternoon convergence boundaries...the most likely locations for
any isolated thunderstorms for this afternoon is over the higher
elevations of the San Bernardino Mountains and along the east
slopes of the mountains of Riverside and San Diego Counties.

Satellite imagery shows patchy stratus over the coastal waters
extending locally inland along portions of the San Diego County
coast with the coverage less than 24 hours ago.

The center of strong high pressure aloft will move slowly westward
from New Mexico today...to Arizona Tuesday...and along the lower
Colorado River on Wednesday. This will bring a strong warming
trend for the early to middle part of the week. The heat is
expected to peak on Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures
10 to 15 degrees above average. A shallow marine layer and weak
coastal eddy will moderate the heat near the coast.

For late in the week into next weekend...high pressure will
weaken slightly and begin to move slowly northward. This will
bring a slow cooling trend into next weekend. As the high pressure
aloft begins to shift northward...southeast flow aloft will
develop across Southern California bringing a return of some
monsoonal moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
220900Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN010-014 tops 020 at KSAN, KCRQ and
KSNA through 17Z. After 17Z SCT100. Low clouds with similar bases
returning between 02Z-05Z Monday.

Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN100 today and tonight. Isolated TSRA
over the mountains between 20Z-03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
High Surf Advisory will be in effect Monday through Wednesday.
Building south-southwest swell from 200 degrees late today will
bring high surf Monday through Wednesday. The highest surf will be
on the southwest facing beaches of Orange and Northern San Diego
County where waves of 6-8 ft are forecast. The surf and swell will
begin to fade Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Possible record high temperatures for Tuesday based on the
current forecast temperatures:

Location           Forecast      Current Record
Chula Vista           83           81 in 2014
Ramona               103          103 in 2006
Idyllwild             96           96 in 2014
Thermal              118          117 in 2000
Borrego              116          116 in 2014

Possible record high temperatures for Wednesday based on the
current forecast temperatures:

Location           Forecast      Current Record
Chula Vista           85           82 in 2015
Riverside            107          107 in 1943
El Cajon             100           99 in 2006
Ramona               105          101 in 1977
Alpine               103          103 in 1977
Campo                104          104 in 1959
Palm Springs         119          119 in 1943
Thermal              117          115 in 2000
Borrego              116          115 in 2000

Several record warm low temperatures are likely as well...especially
on Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM PDT Thursday
     for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Orange
     County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San
     Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and
     Foothills.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for
     Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/CLIMATE...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Moede




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